GALP:EURONEXT LISBONGalp Energia, SGPS S.A. Class B Analysis
Data as of 2026-05-20 - not real-time
€20.01
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Galp Energia trades at €20.01, just below its 20‑day SMA (19.54) and 50‑day SMA (20.00) while holding a bullish MACD histogram (+0.096) and a neutral RSI (55.9), indicating modest upside momentum. The DCF fair‑value of €28.66 suggests an 11% upside from current levels, and the stock’s PE of 19.4 is below the industry average of 22.3, reinforcing a valuation case for being undervalued.
Recent Q1 2026 results showed a surprise net loss, yet upstream production hit the top of guidance and the company announced a €320 million on‑shore wind acquisition in Spain, highlighting a strategic shift toward renewables. Combined with a solid 3.31% dividend yield, a 63% payout ratio, and a forward PE of 11.3, Galp presents a blend of value and growth attributes, though elevated 30‑day volatility (≈31%) and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (87%) warrant caution.
Recent Q1 2026 results showed a surprise net loss, yet upstream production hit the top of guidance and the company announced a €320 million on‑shore wind acquisition in Spain, highlighting a strategic shift toward renewables. Combined with a solid 3.31% dividend yield, a 63% payout ratio, and a forward PE of 11.3, Galp presents a blend of value and growth attributes, though elevated 30‑day volatility (≈31%) and a high debt‑to‑equity ratio (87%) warrant caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Bullish MACD signal with price above short‑term support
- DCF‑derived upside of ~11% and PE discount to peers
- Attractive dividend yield of 3.31% with sustainable payout
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Renewables acquisition expanding growth pipeline
- Forward PE of 11.3 indicating earnings acceleration
- Improving cash flow generation and moderate leverage
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 9/10
Key Factors
- Strategic shift toward renewable energy aligns with energy transition
- Consistent dividend policy supporting shareholder returns
- Undervaluation relative to DCF and industry multiples
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.80%
Profit Margin3.28%
P/E Ratio19.4
ROE16.07%
ROA8.56%
Debt/Equity87.31
P/B Ratio3.5
Op. Cash Flow€2.1B
Free Cash Flow€1.6B
Industry P/E22.3
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI55.9
Support€18.64
Resistance€20.31
MA 20€19.54
MA 50€20.00
MA 200€17.45
MACDBullish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index89.48
Valuation
Fair Value€28.66
Target Price€22.22
Upside/Downside11.06%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.31%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.18
Volatility30.85%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.